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Non-ferrous metals: global economic recovery supports non-ferrous metal prices

Update time2020-08-21   click: 1858

The metal market continues to fluctuate. During the week, the non-ferrous metals market was affected by various factors such as the positive economic data from the United States and the strengthening of the US dollar due to the debt problems in the euro zone. Most metals maintained a volatile trend. As of April 23, the weekly gains of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel on the London Stock Exchange were -0.2%, -4.2%, 1.7%, -0.8%, -1.2%, and 1.1% respectively. Among them, nickel hit another record new highs. Like the London Stock Exchange, the metal market on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was dominated by volatility that week, with most metals falling by about 1% weekly.

  The price of gold rose slightly. Stimulated by the US economic data, the stock market strengthened and the willingness to market risks increased. The price of gold rose slightly that week. As of the close, the spot price of gold in London was $1155.9 per ounce, which was the highest price of the week.

  London Stock Exchange inventory continued to decline. In the past two months, economic data in Europe, the United States and other countries have continued to improve. Corresponding to this, some metal inventories on the London Stock Exchange have declined for several consecutive weeks. In particular, copper inventories have been close to the level of the beginning of the year, while nickel and tin inventories have been compared with the beginning of the year. There are 7.2% and 16.9% declines.

   Global stainless steel production continued to increase in the first quarter. According to data from the monthly report of CRU stainless steel raw materials, the stainless steel orders of global steel mills continued to improve in most regions in the first quarter, leading to an increase in global smelting production. It is expected that the world stainless steel production in the third quarter of 2010 will return to the pre-crisis level of 7.4 million tons. , A month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 48%. Among them, most of the improvement in Europe comes from re-stocking and speculative demand from distributors and end users, but orders from North America and China are stronger due to improved actual demand. It is expected that global stainless steel production is expected to increase further in the second quarter on the basis of continuous improvement in actual demand, coupled with the re-stocking of stable distributors and end users. CRU expects that the world's total smelting output in the second quarter will reach 7.66 million tons, which is equivalent to a new quarterly peak. According to our statistics on stainless steel raw materials, nickel has increased by 45.6% year-to-date, molybdenum concentrate has increased by 16.2% year-to-date, and electrolytic manganese has increased by 8.9%.

   Our view: Although there have been recent accusations against Goldman Sachs and the continuous policy of our government to strictly control the real estate industry, we believe that the impact of these factors is temporary. Recently, more and more macroeconomic data show that metal demand in countries other than China has shown a relatively strong recovery. However, the recent regulatory policies of my country's real estate industry have shown that we believe that it will affect the investment in new houses, and then the demand for metals. We maintain our previous judgment. Taking into account the recovery trend of the global economy, the supply situation and the bearish dollar, we remain cautious and optimistic about the non-ferrous industry, but it is unlikely that the demand for non-ferrous metals will maintain the past growth rate.